In Quebec’s largest real estate markets, sales activity during the third quarter was uneven. Some markets returned to seasonal norms, while others continued to see demand outpace supply. The majority of the province’s markets saw slight quarterly price increases, with values for all property types remaining higher than a year earlier in all reported regions.
One trend appears to be emerging consistently across the board: first-time buyers are keenly awaiting further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. With affordability a key concern for many, experts anticipate that rising demand stemming from lower rates and relaxed borrowing measures may contribute to price growth in 2025.
During the third quarter of 2024, the aggregate1 price of a home in the area was up by 5.2% compared to the same quarter in 2023, to $605,400, representing an increase of 1.0% on a quarterly basis.
“Despite three Bank of Canada rate cuts, we have yet to see a buyer rush. On the one hand, buyers are standing by, confident that further rate cuts are imminent and will create a more opportune time to buy. On the other hand, sellers are fine-tuning their strategies, counting on a wave of motivated buyers in the next few months,” said Dominic St-Pierre, executive vice president, business development, Royal LePage. “The Greater Montreal Area real estate market is performing well, with healthy growth in activity and prices, considering that Canada’s other two major markets are stagnating.”
“The dilemma that seems to be keeping buyers awake at night is whether to jump in now before prices go up due to higher demand, or keep waiting and take advantage of even more attractive mortgage rates,” St-Pierre added. “We’re already seeing an uptick in activity, which began in September.”
Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will appreciate by 8.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
The aggregate price of a home in Quebec City increased 10.5 per cent year over year to $388,600 in the third quarter of 2024. This represents the highest year-over-year price increase in Canada in Q3, and the highest price gain among the report’s major regions for the second consecutive quarter.
“Overall, the province’s markets have been relatively unaffected by the post-pandemic correction in real estate prices, compared to Ontario and British Columbia. Where declines did occur, they were slight and short-lived,” said Michèle Fournier, vice-president and certified real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec. “In Quebec City, the real estate correction simply never materialized. Instead, local and out-of-town demand continued to fuel rising prices without tiring, until late September. Now, buyers seem to have taken a breather, awaiting a possible further boost from the Bank of Canada with a rate cut this autumn, before repositioning themselves in the market.”
Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in Quebec City will increase 9.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year.
In Gatineau, the aggregate price of a home rose 8.0% year over year, to $451,200. On a quarterly basis, however, the price of a property declined by 0.7%.
“In Gatineau, sales have declined since the spring, but increased compared to the third quarter of last year,” said Karine Séguin, certified real estate broker, Royal LePage Vallée de l’Outaouais. “Demand remains healthy, but buyers are willing to wait for further interest rate cut announcements before acting, and meanwhile, inventory continues to grow. The closer rates get to inflation, the more those who have been priced out of the market will come back for an opportunity. I’m expecting real estate demand to pick up this fall, and a very active start to 2025. Prices should rise moderately in the Gatineau region, as this demand will coincide with an increase in inventory.”.
The aggregate price of a home in Sherbrooke posted a 9.5% increase in the third quarter of 2024, compared with the same period in 2023, rising 1.2% on a quarterly basis to $376,200.
“Activity on the Sherbrooke residential resale market was relatively flat this summer, until the last week of September, which is in stark contrast to the Montreal market, in particular, which became more active with back to school,” said Jean-François Bérubé, certified real estate broker, Royal LePage Évolution in Sherbrooke. “The question is whether the next round of interest rate cuts, expected between now and the end of 2024, and through to 2025, will push prices up again by stimulating demand,” he said. “To that, I say: It’s not a question of if, but of when. I’d say that the start of 2025 should resemble the start of 2024: on a roll,” he concluded.
In the third quarter of 2024, the aggregate price of a home in Trois-Rivières climbed 9.7% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023 to $353,700, an increase of 2.5% on a quarterly basis.
“The summer market has returned to more seasonal norms and a slower pace of transactions,” said Martin Leblanc, certified real estate broker, Royal LePage Centre in Trois-Rivières. “The latest lending rate cuts didn’t seem to trigger the anticipated rush of buyers. But that is only a temporary setback.”
Despite the steady decline in interest rates through 2024, Leblanc believes that prices will remain relatively stable through the end of the year, with the market rebounding in the first half of 2025. “Improved access to homeownership stimulated by interest rate cuts and increased inventory on the real estate market should see buyers return early in the first half of 2025. I expect this to put upward pressure on prices over the coming months, with low-to-medium appreciation for the Trois-Rivières real estate market,” he concluded.
Source: Royal Lepage
Director, Communications & Marketing, Quebec
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