In Q1 2026, the national aggregate home price ticked up a modest 0.7% over Q4 2025
Canada’s spring housing market is beginning to show signs of life after a long winter that kept many buyers and sellers on the sidelines. While headlines around economic uncertainty and global conflict continue to weigh on consumer confidence, a recent uptick in activity suggests a slow but welcome start to the spring market.
According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey and Market Forecast, the aggregate1 price of a home in Canada decreased 2.0% year over year to $812,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate home price remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.7%.
“In a typical spring, Canada’s housing market would already be gaining momentum, but persistently low consumer confidence remains a drag on activity – especially in our most expensive markets,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “That hesitation is being driven by uncertainty beyond our borders. The inflationary impact of America’s war with Iran is pushing energy prices higher, with ripple effects across the broader economy, while ongoing trade negotiations ahead of the CUSMA review are adding to concerns about economic stability and job security. For many Canadians, the headlines are hard to ignore.”
That sentiment can be seen in a Bank of Canada survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, where Canadians were asked when they believe Canada–U.S. trade tensions had – or will have – the greatest impact on the economy and inflation. Half of respondents (50%) indicated that the most significant effects are still to come, while 27% believe the worst has already passed.2
“Three factors figure prominently in today’s sluggish market: hesitant first-time buyers, a return to sell-before-buy behaviour, and limited inventory in several key markets,” added Soper. “First-time buyers are the engine of the housing market, and when they pause, it ripples through every segment. Move-up buyers are also taking a more measured approach, often choosing to sell before committing to their next purchase; a behaviour we haven’t seen in years. In some regions, however, the issue isn’t demand – it’s supply.
“What’s clear is that many Canadians still intend to move. Our sales professionals, working with buyers and sellers every day, are approaching the spring and summer markets with cautious optimism.”
According to the central bank, nearly one third (29%) of Canadians said they were likely to move within the next 12 months, up from 22% from a year earlier. Similarly, 20% of homeowners said they were likely to sell their home within the next year, up from 14%.3
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 65 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.3% year over year to $857,300, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.4% to $577,600. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home and a condominium increased modestly by 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.
“Despite ongoing uncertainty, the underlying fundamentals of Canada’s housing market remain sound. For buyers, the environment has improved meaningfully. Competition has eased, interest rates have stabilized, and in many parts of the country prices have levelled off – with declines in our most expensive markets, Toronto and Vancouver, as the price gap with more affordable cities continues to narrow,” added Soper.
“National trends may dominate the headlines, but regional realities are what define market conditions on the ground.”
In the first quarter, the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.7% in the Greater Toronto Area and 4.5% in Greater Vancouver.
“Because of their size, softness in British Columbia and southern Ontario has an outsized impact on national averages,” said Soper. “Meanwhile, strong demand in a much more affordable Quebec market has allowed the province’s major cities to lead in both activity and price growth. On the Prairies, sales have slowed somewhat, yet home values continue to rise modestly, reflecting ongoing supply constraints. Atlantic Canada’s economy has been bolstered by a surge in Newfoundland’s energy sector and a recovery in Nova Scotia’s exports. While sales volumes have moderated, low inventory and a continued stream of interprovincial migrants seeking affordability have fuelled continued, modest home price appreciation.”
Rising energy costs, driven by the escalating conflict in Iran, have introduced renewed uncertainty into the interest rate outlook, which may lead to a shift in market activity. With inflation currently sitting within the Bank of Canada’s target range, and unemployment ticking up in recent months (6.7% in February and March),4 the overnight lending rate has remained on hold at 2.25% since last October. However, the risk of inflation reaccelerating has brought the possibility of future rate hikes back into focus.
“With inflation pressures resurfacing, the Bank of Canada has no room to lower interest rates further – and the next move could be upward,” said Soper. “For buyers planning to enter the market this year, securing a mortgage pre-approval sooner rather than later is a prudent step, particularly as rate holds have a limited shelf life. As that reality sets in, we expect more buyers to come off the sidelines through the spring and summer months.”
Source:
VP of Research & Communications, Royal LePage
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